Stocks, for the most part, traded throughout the shutdown, as investors can now return to focusing on fundamentals. As we await the labor statistics, Sowell’s technical gauges currently remain fully invested.
The U.S. equity markets closed the week of November 10–14, 2025, in a highly fractured state. While the broader indices managed marginal weekly gains as the S&P 500 eked out a 0.12% rise, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.43%. This divergence reflects a sharp, late-week rotation away from the high-flying technology and AI leaders, which had dominated year-to-date returns.
The mood was less about celebration over the end of the government shutdown and more about patience over what information—or lack thereof—the Federal Reserve would use to inform its final interest rate decision of the year. The primary takeaway: momentum trades soured, and defensive/cyclical value briefly had its day in the sun.
Market Catalysts for the Week
The market was driven by three overriding and conflicting factors:
The Government Reopens (The Hope) The longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a whopping 43 days, finally ended mid-week. President Trump signed the continuing resolution (CR) last Wednesday, with bipartisan support (6 House Democrats and 8 Senate Democrats joining in). This resolution funds most federal agencies through Jan 30th, 2026.
Crucially, it included appropriations to fund SNAP through next September regardless of what happens in January, a big win for recipients. However, the fight isn't over: the subsidy extensions for the Affordable Care Act were not included in the CR, setting up a high-stakes legislative battle before they expire at the end of the year.
The initial boost to sentiment from the reopening was quickly offset as traders realized the economic data vacuum would persist, limiting the Fed's visibility.
Hawkish Fed speak (The Hangover) As soon as the government reopened, a chorus of Federal Reserve officials stepped forward with surprisingly hawkish commentary, stressing that the clearer risk remains price stability and that rates should be held steady "for some time." This rhetoric immediately dashed market expectations for a high-probability December rate cut, causing a repricing of risk and bond yields.
Trump Rolls Back Tariffs (The Consumer Relief) Facing heavy political pressure from consumers hammered by higher grocery bills, President Trump rolled back tariffs on imported agricultural goods, including coffee, avocados, tomatoes, bananas, and beef, to slash prices on these grocery staples.
This move on Friday was a major pivot for his administration and provided some relief to sectors dependent on these supply chains.
Stock Market Drivers: Momentum Meets Resistance
The primary story in equities was the great tech unwind driven by valuation concerns and the revised rate outlook, but it wasn't a universal sell-off this week.
Technology Leadership Shakeup While the Nasdaq composite slipped, the mega-cap tech players were able to hold steady from the prior week’s major sell-off. NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft all gained for the week, heading straight into NVIDIA’s critically important earnings release this coming Wednesday.
Apple is climbing the leaderboard again, now the 2nd largest company by market cap, though NVIDIA remains the overall leader. The "insatiable" demand narrative for AI chips was further reinforced as AMD also gained over +5.6% during the week after its CEO announced that overall revenue growth is expected to expand to about 35% per year over the next three to five years.
Sector Rotation & Healthcare Surge In a classic defensive shift, money rotated into traditionally non-glamorous sectors, but Healthcare was the undisputed top weekly performer. It was led by Eli Lilly, which is simply blowing past milestones as obesity drugs gain momentum.
Lilly ended the week up +11.08% to close at $1,025 per share, marking the first time the stock closed above the $1,000 mark. Energy and Materials also outperformed, benefiting from rising oil prices and improving sentiment around global industrial demand.
Gold's Time to Shine Gold was back in the limelight as a safe-haven asset, gaining 2% during the week to close at $4,094 per ounce.
Bond Market Dynamics: Rate Cut Hopes Diminished
The bond market experienced some turbulence, which ultimately reflected the shift in Fed expectations. Core bonds initially rallied (yields fell) at the start of the week on the back of the shutdown ending and lingering hopes for easing.
However, the coordinated hawkish Fedspeak quickly reversed this trend. As expectations for a December rate cut were tempered, bond prices fell and yields rose across the curve, particularly in the short- to intermediate-maturity range. The focus now shifts to the delayed data releases expected over the next two weeks.
The Economy and the Labor Fog
With the federal government finally reopening, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will begin to resume releasing data, and importantly, labor employment numbers, as we’ve been operating in a labor fog for the last several months. Could we be in for a labor surprise?
The view from UBS economists is not great. They painted a picture of mounting weakness that extends well beyond headline job numbers. UBS likens the job market to a bathtub: with outflows (layoffs) steady and inflows (hiring) slowing, the water level (total jobs) is bound to fall.
They noted that the hiring rate, as measured by multiple business surveys, has dropped to levels historically seen only in recessions. Excluding healthcare and social assistance, which have been relatively steady, private-sector payrolls have actually been declining by an average of 36,000 jobs per month. UBS is forecasting that the labor market, long a pillar of resilience for the broader recovery, may be in real trouble.
Looking Ahead
With the shutdown temporarily out of the headlines, the market focus remains squarely on the major macroeconomic and corporate themes: inflation, GDP growth, AI, and tariffs heading into December’s FOMC meeting. Crucially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced its first post-shutdown releases of key economic statistics, aiming to break the "labor fog":
Employment Situation (September): Scheduled for release on Thursday, November 20, 2025. This report will give the first official, albeit delayed, reading on the labor market's strength.
Real Earnings (September): Scheduled for release on Friday, November 21, 2025.
October Data Gap: The White House has indicated that the October jobs report and CPI data were likely too impaired to be released at all, leaving a significant, permanent data gap for policymakers.
The corporate calendar is led by massive earnings reports this week from NVIDIA and Home Depot.
"If I learned anything from covering 1929, [and] covering 2008, it is leverage. People borrowing to make all of this happen. And right now we are beginning to see a remarkable period of borrowing to make the economics of A.I. work.”
—Financial Journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New Yorker Interviewer, Nov. 14, 2025.
Newmont (NEM) — A Golden Revival in a World Searching for Stability
After a stretch of muted performance and investor fatigue, Newmont is once again glittering on investors’ radar. Over the past several months, the world’s largest gold miner has staged an impressive resurgence, reaching over $90 after starting the year around $40 and more than doubling in less than a year. It’s a recovery that feels less like a speculative bounce and more like a steady re-rating, the kind that happens when both the metal and the miner regain their shine.
A Stronger Backdrop for Gold
With inflation proving sticky and global growth uneven, investors have rediscovered gold’s traditional allure as both a hedge and a store of value. Rising geopolitical tension, from currency de-dollarization trends to election-year uncertainty, has only strengthened the safe-haven narrative. Gold price surged fast, breaking through the US $4,000 per ounce level as spot bullion climbed by over 50% year-to-date, and reaching a new all-time high of over US $4,380 per ounce.
For miners like Newmont, this environment has been transformative. The company’s earnings and cash flow have expanded sharply as higher realized gold prices flow directly to the bottom line. In its latest quarter, Newmont posted results that beat expectations on both revenue and EPS, supported by strong production volumes, disciplined cost control, and higher operating efficiency. What’s especially encouraging is that management has achieved this while maintaining a cautious tone on capital spending, signaling lessons learned from prior cycles when gold windfalls led to overreach.
Operational Discipline Takes Hold
Operationally, Newmont has turned a corner. The integration of recently acquired assets, which once weighed on margins and distracted from core operations, is now beginning to bear fruit. Cost synergies are materializing, production reliability has improved, and the company is finally capturing scale benefits commensurate with its global footprint.
Financially, the story is equally constructive. Leverage remains modest, and free cash flow generation has strengthened enough to comfortably support dividends and share repurchases. Management’s decision to expand its buyback program earlier this year was a symbolic move, but an important one that signals confidence in both execution and valuation. Investors who had once questioned whether Newmont could balance growth with discipline are starting to see that balance take hold.
Shifting Market Sentiment
Perhaps the most striking change isn’t just in Newmont’s numbers but in how the market perceives the company. After years of underperformance relative to bullion itself, a common frustration among gold-equity investors, Newmont has regained credibility as a proxy for disciplined gold exposure. Institutional inflows have returned to the sector, and analysts who trimmed forecasts in 2023 and 2024 are now revising them higher.
Part of that sentiment rebound reflects macro positioning. In an environment where bonds and cash offer limited real yield and equity valuations look stretched, gold miners offer something unusual: operating leverage to a scarce, inflation-resistant asset. Among that group, Newmont stands out for its liquidity, diversification, and track record of paying through the cycle.
Risks Beneath the Surface
Despite the strong recovery, Newmont’s rally is not without risks. Insider selling earlier in the fall raised eyebrows, and valuation now bakes in a fair amount of optimism, with the stock trading at roughly 14 times forward earnings, richer than its long-term average. Any meaningful pullback in gold prices could quickly compress that multiple. Operationally, the miner still faces perennial challenges, including cost inflation, regulatory hurdles, and grade variability across its global portfolio.
Moreover, gold’s role as a safe haven can shift quickly. If risk appetite returns and investors rotate back toward growth and technology stocks, demand for gold, and by extension for gold equities, could fade just as fast as it rose.
A More Grounded Kind of Momentum
Still, Newmont’s latest rally feels fundamentally different from the fleeting bursts of the past decade. This time, the company’s balance sheet is healthier, its cost base leaner, and its shareholder return framework more predictable. Management’s focus on operational excellence rather than empire-building suggests the current momentum may have firmer footing.
For long-term investors, Newmont’s story now reads as a rare blend of cyclical opportunity and structural progress. It remains tethered to gold’s fate, but it has also rebuilt credibility as a well-managed, cash-generative enterprise in its own right. If the global economy continues to wobble and the search for stability persists, Newmont’s renewed shine could continue to draw attention, not as a speculative play
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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WEEK AHEAD
November 17-21, 2025
Newmont (NEM) — A Golden Revival in a World Searching for Stability
After a stretch of muted performance and investor fatigue, Newmont is once again glittering on investors’ radar. Over the past several months, the world’s largest gold miner has staged an impressive resurgence, reaching over $90 after starting the year around $40 and more than doubling in less than a year. It’s a recovery that feels less like a speculative bounce and more like a steady re-rating, the kind that happens when both the metal and the miner regain their shine.
A Stronger Backdrop for Gold
For miners like Newmont, this environment has been transformative. The company’s earnings and cash flow have expanded sharply as higher realized gold prices flow directly to the bottom line. In its latest quarter, Newmont posted results that beat expectations on both revenue and EPS, supported by strong production volumes, disciplined cost control, and higher operating efficiency. What’s especially encouraging is that management has achieved this while maintaining a cautious tone on capital spending, signaling lessons learned from prior cycles when gold windfalls led to overreach.
Operational Discipline Takes Hold
Operationally, Newmont has turned a corner. The integration of recently acquired assets, which once weighed on margins and distracted from core operations, is now beginning to bear fruit. Cost synergies are materializing, production reliability has improved, and the company is finally capturing scale benefits commensurate with its global footprint.
Financially, the story is equally constructive. Leverage remains modest, and free cash flow generation has strengthened enough to comfortably support dividends and share repurchases. Management’s decision to expand its buyback program earlier this year was a symbolic move, but an important one that signals confidence in both execution and valuation. Investors who had once questioned whether Newmont could balance growth with discipline are starting to see that balance take hold.
Shifting Market Sentiment
Perhaps the most striking change isn’t just in Newmont’s numbers but in how the market perceives the company. After years of underperformance relative to bullion itself, a common frustration among gold-equity investors, Newmont has regained credibility as a proxy for disciplined gold exposure. Institutional inflows have returned to the sector, and analysts who trimmed forecasts in 2023 and 2024 are now revising them higher.
Part of that sentiment rebound reflects macro positioning. In an environment where bonds and cash offer limited real yield and equity valuations look stretched, gold miners offer something unusual: operating leverage to a scarce, inflation-resistant asset. Among that group, Newmont stands out for its liquidity, diversification, and track record of paying through the cycle.
Risks Beneath the Surface
Despite the strong recovery, Newmont’s rally is not without risks. Insider selling earlier in the fall raised eyebrows, and valuation now bakes in a fair amount of optimism, with the stock trading at roughly 14 times forward earnings, richer than its long-term average. Any meaningful pullback in gold prices could quickly compress that multiple. Operationally, the miner still faces perennial challenges, including cost inflation, regulatory hurdles, and grade variability across its global portfolio.
Moreover, gold’s role as a safe haven can shift quickly. If risk appetite returns and investors rotate back toward growth and technology stocks, demand for gold, and by extension for gold equities, could fade just as fast as it rose.
A More Grounded Kind of Momentum
Still, Newmont’s latest rally feels fundamentally different from the fleeting bursts of the past decade. This time, the company’s balance sheet is healthier, its cost base leaner, and its shareholder return framework more predictable. Management’s focus on operational excellence rather than empire-building suggests the current momentum may have firmer footing.
For long-term investors, Newmont’s story now reads as a rare blend of cyclical opportunity and structural progress. It remains tethered to gold’s fate, but it has also rebuilt credibility as a well-managed, cash-generative enterprise in its own right. If the global economy continues to wobble and the search for stability persists, Newmont’s renewed shine could continue to draw attention, not as a speculative play
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.