The momentum in equity markets strengthens our positioning, buoyed by a steady drumbeat of strong corporate earnings. Through it all, Sowell’s gauges have held firm—fully invested and quietly confident—while any near-term volatility from forward guidance appears more like a passing squall than a change in course.
There’s an old saying that the market has a way of looking past the storm clouds to see the horizon. This past week, ending April 24, 2026, was a masterclass in that very phenomenon. As headlines reported a developing conflict involving Iran and the persistent sting of inflation, one might have expected the typical retreat into caution. Instead, we witnessed a remarkable display of focus—a collective decision by the American investor to prioritize the fundamental strength of our industry over the noise of the moment.
Despite headlines that would have caused a weaker market to falter, the S&P 500 pushed forward with another weekly gain of 0.56%. What is most compelling is the source of this strength: a long-overdue appreciation for the "plumbing" of the AI infrastructure.
For months, the AI boom and NVIDIA had left Intel and the traditional CPU in the dust. But the market finally recognized that AI isn't just about specialized accelerators—it is an ecosystem. This realization, coupled with a masterful turnaround at Intel, helped carry the broader indices. The numbers tell the story: Intel’s shares saw a massive 20.5% weekly gain, contributing to a staggering 284% increase over the past year. Semiconductors and technology stocks finished the week up 10% and 3%, respectively, providing the bedrock upon which the S&P 500’s gains were built.
The bond market is adjusting to the reality of higher inflation and higher rates longer as the 20-year and 30-year yields ticked up approximately 3 basis points to 4.88% and 4.91%, respectively. It is the market’s way of ensuring we remain disciplined as we navigate these fiscal waters.
Intel’s "Deliberate Reset"
If you want to understand this rally, you look at Intel. The company posted blowout quarterly earnings on revenue of $13.58 billion, beating consensus estimates by more than $1 billion. Under the leadership of CEO Li-Bu Tan, the company has pivoted back to the essential role CPUs play in complementing AI infrastructure.
The data center business—the very heart of the modern digital economy—grew 22% this quarter. Furthermore, Intel is successfully deepening its reach through strategic partnerships with Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, and the U.S. government, which holds a 10% ownership stake. It is a reminder that when American industrial giants refocus, they can reclaim their place in the vanguard.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues to prove its own dominance, breaking through a record $5 trillion market cap after a 3.3% weekly gain, keeping its year-to-date performance at a commanding 11.7%.
The Economic Digest
We have seen a moderate dose of economic data that paints a picture of a nation pushing through headwinds:
Retail Sales: Advanced to 1.7% in March, surpassing expectations of 1.5%. While this growth is positive, we must be clear-eyed: much of this spending is a reaction to higher energy prices, not necessarily a surge in discretionary prosperity.
Manufacturing and Services: The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to a 47-month high of 54.0. However, output prices jumped to 59.9—the highest since July 2022—suggesting that firms are stocking inventory in anticipation of further energy-related inflation.
The Sentiment Gap: While the corporate engine runs, the consumer remains wary. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 49.8, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and the high cost of living.
Labor Market: We are starting to see the first cracks in the jobs data. Jobless claims rose to 214K, exceeding expectations, while continuing claims climbed to 1.821 million.
A Look Toward Next Week
As we turn the page, the week ahead does not get any quieter. The ongoing Iran conflict remains the backdrop to a week defined by high-stakes events: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision under Chair Powell, a flood of earnings from the "Mag-7" tech titans, critical reports from oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and the latest from Berkshire Hathaway.
“If this war isn’t extended, it’s not good for the U.S. economy, but we will weather it better than anyone else. I think the biggest impact, potential negative impact to the U.S. economy is what it does to the global economy. And this is a real global shock. And if it lasts awhile, then there’s a danger that turbulence in the markets will spill over into the U.S.”
—Former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Bloomberg Television Interview, April 18, 2026
Commodity Currencies and the Return of Carry
Author: Ben Ashby
The market, as it so often does, has shown a certain genius for fixating on the immediate inconvenience while sidestepping the larger development. In the weeks since the fragile ceasefire, attention has remained trained on the Strait of Hormuz: When will tankers resume normal passage, how quickly can Gulf production recover, and when might insurance and freight costs stop making LNG cargoes cost less than a luxury cruise?
All perfectly reasonable near-term questions, but they are also, I believe, the wrong ones.
Whilst we reiterate our skepticism about a “Goldilocks” solution to the mess in the Persian Gulf, what is unfolding is not what we believe is simply another Middle Eastern disruption to be filed away under “geopolitical noise” and forgotten once spot prices calm down. It is, in our view, an acceleration of a structural rebalancing already underway in the global energy system. The geography of reliable supply, the direction of capital flows, and the currencies financing both are shifting—not neatly, and certainly not overnight, but in a way that increasingly favors the “Atlantic basin.”
That does not make the Gulf irrelevant. Far from it. The region remains critical to global energy and trade. But persistent questions around shipping security, insurance, and counterparty exposure—compounded by Iran’s domestic fragilities—have sharpened the case for diversification for Europe and Asia.
There is a second dimension here that I believe oil headlines tend to obscure. A recent Financial Times piece by Adam Hanieh usefully noted the Gulf’s deep integration into the global food system through ammonia, urea, sulphur, and related chemical inputs essential to modern agriculture. That matters because disruptions in the Gulf do not stop at crude prices. They can transmit into fertilizer costs, farm input inflation, and food security pressures, particularly in already vulnerable parts of Africa and Asia. Add in the importance of Gulf logistics hubs such as Jebel Ali, and the scope for wider ripple effects becomes rather harder to dismiss as background noise.
None of this requires melodrama. Brent has already come off its highs, and markets are doing what they usually do after a scare: reassuring themselves that normality is only slightly delayed. But the more important point is that repeated uncertainty around Gulf energy and fertilizer flows raises the premium on resilient, politically steadier, and geographically proximate alternatives. That is where we believe the Atlantic rebalancing becomes relevant.
The beneficiaries are not difficult for us to identify. For Europe, the flexibility of US and Canadian energy, Brazil’s pre-salt developments, expanding production in Guyana, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta supported by improved export infrastructure, West African LNG growth, and the steadier contribution of the Norwegian and UK North Sea all point in the same direction. These are not perfect substitutes for the Gulf supply, nor need they be. They are additional sources of supply with fewer strategic chokepoints and, for Europe and the Americas in particular, a more attractive risk profile.
That has implications beyond energy equities. It also helps revive a more grounded version of the commodity–currency carry trade, particularly in parts of Latin America. Brazil’s Selic rate, even after recent easing, remains high at 14.75%. Colombia’s policy rate is 11.25%, and Mexico’s is 6.75%. Those figures matter not simply because yield is once again visible, but because in several cases it sits alongside terms-of-trade support and exposure to a broader shift in commodity and capital flows. Latin America is not the thesis in itself; it is, in our view, for the moment, one of the clearer expressions of it.
Markets tend to treat carry as a regrettable lapse in discipline until it starts working, at which point it becomes a strategy again. The distinction this time is that the case is not merely about chasing nominal yield. Where commodity-linked economies are benefiting from stronger external balances, more durable export demand, and relatively high real yields, selected currency exposure can offer both income and a degree of inflation resilience. That does not remove the familiar risks—dollar strength, domestic politics, policy missteps, and commodity volatility remain perfectly capable of spoiling the party—but it does make the opportunity more substantive than a simple reach for yield.
For US investors and advisors building multi-asset portfolios, the implications are practical enough. Energy exposures that assume a swift return to Gulf normality still look, using British understatement, “somewhat optimistic.” Tactical dislocations are one thing; a gradual redrawing of the map is another. We think structural demand for diversification should continue to support selected North American LNG, Atlantic-basin upstream assets, and related infrastructure.
Selective exposure to commodity-linked currencies—whether through FX, local markets, credit, or equities with strong local-currency leverage—may offer both carry and a partial hedge against persistent inflation risks. In fixed income, we think the backdrop still argues for caution on duration, while TIPS and selective curve steepener positions retain their usefulness in a world where energy and food-related price shocks may prove less transitory than central bankers would no doubt prefer.
Structural changes rarely arrive with fanfare. More often, they present themselves as temporary interruptions to be explained away until the evidence becomes too obvious to ignore. This looks rather like one of those moments to us. Not the collapse of the old order, which is usually announced far too early, but a steady reweighting of where reliable supply, capital investment, and ultimately returns are likely to gather.
The challenge, as ever, is to distinguish between what is merely noisy and what is actually changing.
Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. An investor should consult with their financial professional before making any investment decisions. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Rayliant Investment Research. Indices cannot be invested in directly and are unmanaged.
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
WEEK AHEAD
April 27-May 1, 2026
Intel Rocks the World!
There’s an old saying that the market has a way of looking past the storm clouds to see the horizon. This past week, ending April 24, 2026, was a masterclass in that very phenomenon. As headlines reported a developing conflict involving Iran and the persistent sting of inflation, one might have expected the typical retreat into caution. Instead, we witnessed a remarkable display of focus—a collective decision by the American investor to prioritize the fundamental strength of our industry over the noise of the moment.
Despite headlines that would have caused a weaker market to falter, the S&P 500 pushed forward with another weekly gain of 0.56%. What is most compelling is the source of this strength: a long-overdue appreciation for the "plumbing" of the AI infrastructure.
For months, the AI boom and NVIDIA had left Intel and the traditional CPU in the dust. But the market finally recognized that AI isn't just about specialized accelerators—it is an ecosystem. This realization, coupled with a masterful turnaround at Intel, helped carry the broader indices. The numbers tell the story: Intel’s shares saw a massive 20.5% weekly gain, contributing to a staggering 284% increase over the past year. Semiconductors and technology stocks finished the week up 10% and 3%, respectively, providing the bedrock upon which the S&P 500’s gains were built.
The bond market is adjusting to the reality of higher inflation and higher rates longer as the 20-year and 30-year yields ticked up approximately 3 basis points to 4.88% and 4.91%, respectively. It is the market’s way of ensuring we remain disciplined as we navigate these fiscal waters.
Intel’s "Deliberate Reset"
If you want to understand this rally, you look at Intel. The company posted blowout quarterly earnings on revenue of $13.58 billion, beating consensus estimates by more than $1 billion. Under the leadership of CEO Li-Bu Tan, the company has pivoted back to the essential role CPUs play in complementing AI infrastructure.
The data center business—the very heart of the modern digital economy—grew 22% this quarter. Furthermore, Intel is successfully deepening its reach through strategic partnerships with Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, and the U.S. government, which holds a 10% ownership stake. It is a reminder that when American industrial giants refocus, they can reclaim their place in the vanguard.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues to prove its own dominance, breaking through a record $5 trillion market cap after a 3.3% weekly gain, keeping its year-to-date performance at a commanding 11.7%.
The Economic Digest
We have seen a moderate dose of economic data that paints a picture of a nation pushing through headwinds:
A Look Toward Next Week
As we turn the page, the week ahead does not get any quieter. The ongoing Iran conflict remains the backdrop to a week defined by high-stakes events: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision under Chair Powell, a flood of earnings from the "Mag-7" tech titans, critical reports from oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and the latest from Berkshire Hathaway.
Commodity Currencies and the Return of Carry
Author: Ben Ashby
The market, as it so often does, has shown a certain genius for fixating on the immediate inconvenience while sidestepping the larger development. In the weeks since the fragile ceasefire, attention has remained trained on the Strait of Hormuz: When will tankers resume normal passage, how quickly can Gulf production recover, and when might insurance and freight costs stop making LNG cargoes cost less than a luxury cruise?
All perfectly reasonable near-term questions, but they are also, I believe, the wrong ones.
Whilst we reiterate our skepticism about a “Goldilocks” solution to the mess in the Persian Gulf, what is unfolding is not what we believe is simply another Middle Eastern disruption to be filed away under “geopolitical noise” and forgotten once spot prices calm down. It is, in our view, an acceleration of a structural rebalancing already underway in the global energy system. The geography of reliable supply, the direction of capital flows, and the currencies financing both are shifting—not neatly, and certainly not overnight, but in a way that increasingly favors the “Atlantic basin.”
That does not make the Gulf irrelevant. Far from it. The region remains critical to global energy and trade. But persistent questions around shipping security, insurance, and counterparty exposure—compounded by Iran’s domestic fragilities—have sharpened the case for diversification for Europe and Asia.
There is a second dimension here that I believe oil headlines tend to obscure. A recent Financial Times piece by Adam Hanieh usefully noted the Gulf’s deep integration into the global food system through ammonia, urea, sulphur, and related chemical inputs essential to modern agriculture. That matters because disruptions in the Gulf do not stop at crude prices. They can transmit into fertilizer costs, farm input inflation, and food security pressures, particularly in already vulnerable parts of Africa and Asia. Add in the importance of Gulf logistics hubs such as Jebel Ali, and the scope for wider ripple effects becomes rather harder to dismiss as background noise.
None of this requires melodrama. Brent has already come off its highs, and markets are doing what they usually do after a scare: reassuring themselves that normality is only slightly delayed. But the more important point is that repeated uncertainty around Gulf energy and fertilizer flows raises the premium on resilient, politically steadier, and geographically proximate alternatives. That is where we believe the Atlantic rebalancing becomes relevant.
The beneficiaries are not difficult for us to identify. For Europe, the flexibility of US and Canadian energy, Brazil’s pre-salt developments, expanding production in Guyana, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta supported by improved export infrastructure, West African LNG growth, and the steadier contribution of the Norwegian and UK North Sea all point in the same direction. These are not perfect substitutes for the Gulf supply, nor need they be. They are additional sources of supply with fewer strategic chokepoints and, for Europe and the Americas in particular, a more attractive risk profile.
That has implications beyond energy equities. It also helps revive a more grounded version of the commodity–currency carry trade, particularly in parts of Latin America. Brazil’s Selic rate, even after recent easing, remains high at 14.75%. Colombia’s policy rate is 11.25%, and Mexico’s is 6.75%. Those figures matter not simply because yield is once again visible, but because in several cases it sits alongside terms-of-trade support and exposure to a broader shift in commodity and capital flows. Latin America is not the thesis in itself; it is, in our view, for the moment, one of the clearer expressions of it.
Markets tend to treat carry as a regrettable lapse in discipline until it starts working, at which point it becomes a strategy again. The distinction this time is that the case is not merely about chasing nominal yield. Where commodity-linked economies are benefiting from stronger external balances, more durable export demand, and relatively high real yields, selected currency exposure can offer both income and a degree of inflation resilience. That does not remove the familiar risks—dollar strength, domestic politics, policy missteps, and commodity volatility remain perfectly capable of spoiling the party—but it does make the opportunity more substantive than a simple reach for yield.
For US investors and advisors building multi-asset portfolios, the implications are practical enough. Energy exposures that assume a swift return to Gulf normality still look, using British understatement, “somewhat optimistic.” Tactical dislocations are one thing; a gradual redrawing of the map is another. We think structural demand for diversification should continue to support selected North American LNG, Atlantic-basin upstream assets, and related infrastructure.
Selective exposure to commodity-linked currencies—whether through FX, local markets, credit, or equities with strong local-currency leverage—may offer both carry and a partial hedge against persistent inflation risks. In fixed income, we think the backdrop still argues for caution on duration, while TIPS and selective curve steepener positions retain their usefulness in a world where energy and food-related price shocks may prove less transitory than central bankers would no doubt prefer.
Structural changes rarely arrive with fanfare. More often, they present themselves as temporary interruptions to be explained away until the evidence becomes too obvious to ignore. This looks rather like one of those moments to us. Not the collapse of the old order, which is usually announced far too early, but a steady reweighting of where reliable supply, capital investment, and ultimately returns are likely to gather.
The challenge, as ever, is to distinguish between what is merely noisy and what is actually changing.
Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. An investor should consult with their financial professional before making any investment decisions. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Rayliant Investment Research. Indices cannot be invested in directly and are unmanaged.
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.