Equity markets have continued their winning streak, reclaiming much of the ground lost in the wake of the Iran conflict and lending a quiet boost to Sowell’s technical footing. As history often reminds us, markets can stumble on uncertainty but rarely forget how to stand back up. Through it all, Sowell’s gauges remain steady and fully invested—choosing discipline over distraction.
To the Moon and Back: A Week of Ceasefires and Space Oddities
If you felt a sudden surge of optimism this week, it wasn’t just the spring air—it was the sound of a thousand trading floors exhaling in unison. For the five days ending April 10, 2026, the markets decided to stop acting like a disaster movie and start acting like a rocket ship.
While we’ve spent much of the last two months ducking for cover from geopolitical shrapnel, this week proved that even the most stubborn bear can be tempted by a well-timed ceasefire and a successful splashdown.
After weeks of looking like a broken elevator, the major indices finally remembered which way is up. The rebound effectively erased earlier losses as investors pivoted from "prepping for impact" to "hoping for peace."
The Big Catalyst: The "Trump Ceasefire"
The show’s star was on Wednesday, April 8. If the market were a person, it would have spent that morning doing cartwheels. The Dow surged, and the S&P 500 jumped more than 2% in a single session.
Why the sudden euphoria? President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran effectively put a "pause" button on the looming blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While the resolution remains unresolved, the mere intention of ending the conflict sent oil prices tumbling from $116 to close at $95.63. The VIX—the market's "fear gauge"—followed suit, retreating from a spike of 27 to a more manageable 19.23.
Beneath the surface of the rally, there was a mountain of economic data for markets to digest. It was a bit like eating a salad after a week of stress-eating pizza; necessary, but full of fiber.
The Inflation Picture: March CPI jumped 0.9% at the headline level—the biggest leap in two years—pushed by those pesky energy prices. However, "Core" CPI was muted at 0.2%, suggesting the underlying fire isn't spreading as fast as feared. PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite metric, came in right at expectations (+2.8% annually).
The Service Sector Shivers: The ISM Services index slipped to 54.0% from 56.1%. While anything over 50 is growth, the "Prices Paid" component within that survey hit 70.7—the highest since October 2022.
Growth Grumbles: The third estimate for Q4 GDP was revised lower again to 0.5% (down from 0.7%). Combine that with a drop in Personal Income (-0.1%) and a miss in Personal Spending (0.5% vs. 0.7% expected), and you see a consumer that is starting to tighten the belt.
Manufacturing & Labor: Durable Goods orders fell 1.5%, though if you strip out transportation, things actually looked okay (+0.8%). Meanwhile, Jobless Claims ticked up to 219K, a bit higher than the 210K expected.
Artemis II: The Ultimate "Product Launch"
While we were watching the ticker, NASA was busy making history. On Friday, April 10, the Artemis II mission concluded with a perfect splashdown in the Pacific. For those of us in the investment world, this wasn’t just a "giant leap" for mankind; it was a massive validation of the future ahead.
The Orion spacecraft didn’t just break a human distance record (252,756 miles from Earth); it stress-tested the hardware we’ve been betting on. The relationship between Artemis and the S&P 500 isn't just about "cool rockets." It’s about CapEx. When Orion’s heat shield survived 5,000°F, it signaled to investors that the massive backlogs in aerospace and defense aren't just theoretical—they are operational.
The Week Ahead: All Eyes on the Fed
As we look toward the horizon, the focus shifts from the stars back to the marble halls of D.C. The upcoming FOMC meeting on April 28-29 looms large, and the market is desperate for a signal that the "higher for longer" era is finally nearing its splashdown. Before we get there, we have a gauntlet of key releases to navigate, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production data. Investors will be parsing every syllable for clues: will the Fed prioritize the stalling Q4 GDP growth and record-low consumer sentiment, or will the sticky 70.7 ISM Prices Index keep them in a hawkish orbit?
We ended the week with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 eyeing a win streak. We’ve seen that the market can handle a Dow 50,000 milestone and lower GDP revisions, provided there's a light at the end of the geopolitical tunnel. Whether the ceasefire holds or Artemis II leads to a permanent moon base is anyone’s guess, but for now, the bulls are enjoying the view.
“No winter lasts forever; no spring skips its turn.”
– American Journalist Hal Borland
When Energy Becomes the Lone Ranger
By Fiona Zhang
Over the past several weeks, market performance has become increasingly concentrated, with energy emerging as the standout sector. Large-cap names such as Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), and ConocoPhillips (COP) have all delivered solid gains. Chevron, for instance, is still up roughly 5% over the past month, even after recent pullbacks, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have risen 4 to 6% over the same period. At their peaks in late March, several of these names had rallied more than 10% before partially retracing, highlighting both the strength and the volatility of the move.
Beyond price action, the energy sector's fundamentals add texture to the story. When Chevron reported earnings for the most recent quarter, the headlines were not dramatic, but the details were telling. Revenue and free cash flow came in comfortably above expectations, driven by better refining margins and a steadier production profile as weather disruptions eased. Management’s commentary struck a cautious but confident tone: executives emphasized disciplined capital allocation, continued shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, and a willingness to invest selectively in high-return upstream opportunities. They did not promise a dramatic acceleration, but they did project cash flow resilience even if oil prices eased from current elevated levels.
At the center of this shift is the escalation in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran. Supply disruption fears and heightened geopolitical risk premiums pushed crude prices sharply higher, providing a direct and immediate tailwind to energy equities. In effect, energy has acted as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, with investors flocking to the sector for exposure to these macro-driven dynamics.
Yet a deeper look reveals that other value sectors have not participated in the rally. Unlike a typical regime change, where a period of growth leadership is followed by a synchronized rotation into value, sectors such as financials and industrials largely lagged, finishing the month in the red. Persistent inflation and cautious corporate guidance are further weighing on expectations, leaving most value sectors under pressure despite a generally positive economic backdrop. Roughly 84% of individual S&P 500 stocks declined during March, highlighting how narrow the leadership has been. Energy’s rally has been largely isolated, driven by a very specific macro shock rather than a broad factor-driven rotation.
Meanwhile, growth equities, particularly mega-cap technology, have shown signs of moderating momentum. This slowdown does not reflect a collapse in earnings, but rather a tempering of the pace of growth. Investors are navigating a backdrop of “higher for longer” interest rates, where borrowing costs remain elevated, and discount rates for future earnings are higher, putting pressure on valuations even as fundamentals remain intact. At the same time, demand for technology remains robust, particularly in semiconductors and data center infrastructure, where AI and cloud expansion continue to drive underlying consumption. These areas remain structurally strong, yet investors are reassessing near-term expectations and moderating risk exposure. An interesting byproduct of this dynamic is the indirect support it provides to energy markets: powering massive data centers and chip manufacturing facilities requires substantial electricity, often supplied by natural gas and other energy sources, linking ongoing tech demand (and investors’ attention) to sustained energy consumption.
Adding to this complex backdrop is heightened market sensitivity. Investor sentiment has become a powerful driver of volatility, with markets reacting swiftly to news and headlines, particularly around geopolitical developments. This rapid feedback loop means that gains in energy, while substantial, are contingent on the persistence of macro risks. Should tensions ease or supply fears abate, the very forces that propelled energy higher could reverse quickly, highlighting the importance of monitoring the underlying drivers behind these moves and the factors pushing commodity prices.
In this environment, the market’s leadership is highly selective, with neither growth nor value broadly leading. Energy’s surge provides insight into how external shocks can dominate sector performance, but the narrowness of the rally and the speed with which sentiment shifts highlight the fragility of current conditions. Investors navigating these markets must remain attentive to the drivers of both demand and geopolitical risk, understanding that what lifts energy today could recede tomorrow, reshaping the broader market landscape.
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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WEEK AHEAD
April 13-17, 2026
To the Moon and Back: A Week of Ceasefires and Space Oddities
The Big Catalyst: The "Trump Ceasefire"
Artemis II: The Ultimate "Product Launch"
The Week Ahead: All Eyes on the Fed
When Energy Becomes the Lone Ranger
By Fiona Zhang
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.