Though the major market average spent much of last week under a cloud, the underlying fundamentals remain whole. Our indicators remain steady, and—like any good investor in a moment of turbulence—Sowell’s technical gauges stand firm and fully invested for now.
Well, that was certainly a week. If you felt like your portfolio was subjected to a five-day game of Wall Street pinball, you're not wrong. The S&P 500 spent the week trending down by -1.91%, dragged down by the Nasdaq and Semiconductors. It was less a market correction and more an anxiety attack driven by rate fears and AI valuations. But here’s the key takeaway: Beneath the surface of the broad market decline, it wasn't all bad news. While the index screamed "Panic!" a few key bellwether giants—namely Google, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson—were having a banner week, quietly setting new highs and proving that sector-specific dominance trumps market-wide jitters every time.
The Twin Anchors:
Volatility did rise, but not to panic levels – VIX in the mid-20s. This swing was caused by rising uncertainty over the cost of money and the price of the future.
The Bond Market & The Fed Rate Re-Think: This was the biggest anchor. Hawkish comments from Fed officials caused rate-cut expectations to fade, while the 10-Year Treasury yield narrowed by 8 bps to 4.06%, reflecting investor skepticism.
NVIDIA's Whiplash: NVIDIA delivered a blowout Q3, initially soaring 5%, but then abruptly reversed, closing down 3.2%. While NVIDIA got all the attention for its stellar report, the swift selling demonstrated deep investor valuation cynicism for Semis as the stock declined 5.9% for the week. The PHLX Semiconductor Index also fell 5.9%.
While the overall market was down, the stealth winners were undeniable:
Google (GOOGL)
Up over 8.4% (setting a new all-time high reaching $300)
The Gemini 3.0 Nuclear Option: Google launched its technically superior Gemini 3 model, outshining rivals. This, coupled with a massive vote of confidence from Berkshire Hathaway, a new major investor, positioned Google as the true AI infrastructure winner. While NVIDIA got all the attention for its chips, Google got the gains for delivering a clear product pathway to the future.
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Up over 3.4% (hitting a $1 trillion market cap milestone)
The Pharma King: Lilly shrugged off market turbulence entirely, thanks to the continued, explosive optimism surrounding its dominant weight-loss and diabetes drugs (GLP-1s).
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Up over 4% (set a new all-time closing high)
Acquisition & Stability: The healthcare giant was propelled by the announcement of a $3.05 billion acquisition (strengthening its oncology pipeline) and the overall demand for stable, defensive stocks with dependable growth.
Walmart (WMT)
Up around 2.6% (soaring nearly 7% on Thursday)
The Inflation Hedge: Walmart delivered a stunning earnings beat, confirming it is gaining market share across all income levels. In a high-rate, high-cost environment, Walmart is the place where stressed consumers find value, making it an inflation-resistant powerhouse.
The Economic Indicators: A Confused Jigsaw Puzzle
The delayed economic data released this week added mixed clarity:
Nonfarm Payrolls
+119K Jobs (vs. +51K est.) but August revised from +22K to -4K.
Whiplash/Mixed: The huge headline beat initially suggested a strong economy (bad for rate cuts). But the sharp downward revision to August signaled underlying weakness, boosting rate-cut hopes and creating extreme intraday volatility.
Unemployment Rate
4.4% (Ticked up from 4.3% est.), U6 remained at 8%.
Dovish/Positive: The rise in the unemployment rate was a classic "good news is bad news" scenario. It gave the Fed more room to ease policy, as the labor market was clearly softening, leading to some Friday buying as rate cut hopes were briefly revived.
Factory Orders
+1.4% (vs. previous -1.3%)
Positive: This massive rebound suggested healthy demand for manufactured goods, providing a brief lift to industrial stocks.
Construction Spending
+0.2% (vs. 0.0% est.)
Neutral/Dollar Strength: The modest beat suggested pockets of strength, supporting the narrative that the economy wasn't collapsing, which reinforced the "higher-for-longer" rate fear.
Looking Ahead: The Turkey Short & The Data Feast
After a week that felt like running a financial marathon, the market gets a reprieve—sort of. Next week is a short trading week in the U.S. due to Thanksgiving, but don't expect the drama to disappear. We are still facing a gauntlet of critical economic reports that could either cement the Fed's cautious stance or swing the pendulum back toward rate cut hopes at the December FOMC meeting. Key reports include Industrial Production, the third and final estimate of Q3 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), and the first taste of holiday spending with Retail Sales data. If inflation is cooler than expected (PCE), expect a holiday rally; if economic growth (GDP/Industrial Production) remains too strong, the "higher-for-longer" anxiety will surely return to spoil the Thanksgiving leftovers.
Six years ago, CPUs were 90% of the world's supercomputers - top 500 supercomputers 6 years ago. This year less than 15%, went from 90% to 10%. And meanwhile accelerated computing went from the other way, 10% to now 90%. Okay, so you're seeing that inflection point, the transition in high performance computing from general purpose computing to accelerated computing.”
— NVIDIA's President and CEO Jensen Huang, U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum, Nov 19, 2025.
Tariff Buster – Walmart
By Fiona Zhang
Walmart heads toward the end of the year with a sense of quiet confidence. Its latest quarter, Q3 FY26, offered a snapshot of a retailer still gaining ground. Revenue reached $179.5 billion, up 5.8% from a year earlier. E-commerce continued to be a powerful engine, rising 27% globally. In the U.S., comparable sales excluding fuel increased 4.5%, a pace strong enough for the company to raise its full-year outlook to roughly 5% growth in both net sales and operating income on a constant-currency basis.
In a landscape where many retailers are fighting for traffic and struggling to keep margins intact, Walmart’s results stand out as steady and disciplined rather than flashy. Its ability to post solid growth while raising guidance speaks to a resilience that peers have not always matched this year. With tariffs hovering in the background as a continuing complication for the entire retail sector, the quarter’s numbers suggest that Walmart is managing these pressures more effectively than most. The company has long leaned on its scale to negotiate pricing with suppliers, diversify sourcing, and avoid passing abrupt cost jumps onto consumers. The fact that both top-line growth and income guidance are moving higher suggests that Walmart has been able to absorb or offset cost pressures, even as import-heavy categories remain vulnerable.
Beyond the near-term noise, Walmart is quietly reshaping its view of the future of shopping. In October, it unveiled a new partnership with OpenAI that will allow customers to complete purchases directly inside ChatGPT through an Instant Checkout feature. The company describes this shift as a move toward what it calls AI-first or agentic commerce, where the shopping experience becomes conversational and predictive rather than search-based. Internally, Walmart says AI has already shortened fashion development cycles by as much as 18 weeks and cut customer-care resolution time by up to 40%.
That vision also shows up in the company’s recent dealmaking. Walmart completed its $2.3 billion purchase of Vizio in late 2024, giving its advertising and data capabilities a powerful new channel. More recently, the company has been in talks to acquire R&A Data, an AI-driven startup that helps marketplaces detect counterfeit or fraudulent listings. If completed, the deal would bolster Walmart’s fast-growing marketplace business and strengthen its ability to police product quality at scale.
All of this momentum leads into the holiday season, a stretch that will test execution more than vision. Walmart enters with the advantages it reliably delivers during peak shopping periods: strong value positioning, a broad assortment, and an omnichannel network that continues to improve. Yet risks still linger. A cautious consumer could lean harder into necessities at the expense of discretionary categories. Tariff-driven cost pressure could erode margin if the company is forced to absorb more than it can pass through. And the holiday rush always raises the stakes for inventory decisions, delivery speed, and fulfillment accuracy.
Even with these uncertainties, Walmart feels like a retailer that knows where it is heading. Its core business remains stable and growing, its digital operations are gaining traction, and its technology ambitions are no longer theoretical. What happens this holiday season will depend on demand and execution, but the longer arc suggests a company positioning itself not just for the next quarter, but for the next era of retail.
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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WEEK AHEAD
November 24-28, 2025
Sense & Sensibility
Well, that was certainly a week. If you felt like your portfolio was subjected to a five-day game of Wall Street pinball, you're not wrong. The S&P 500 spent the week trending down by -1.91%, dragged down by the Nasdaq and Semiconductors. It was less a market correction and more an anxiety attack driven by rate fears and AI valuations. But here’s the key takeaway: Beneath the surface of the broad market decline, it wasn't all bad news. While the index screamed "Panic!" a few key bellwether giants—namely Google, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson—were having a banner week, quietly setting new highs and proving that sector-specific dominance trumps market-wide jitters every time.
The Twin Anchors:
Volatility did rise, but not to panic levels – VIX in the mid-20s. This swing was caused by rising uncertainty over the cost of money and the price of the future.
While the overall market was down, the stealth winners were undeniable:
Google (GOOGL)
Up over 8.4% (setting a new all-time high reaching $300)
The Gemini 3.0 Nuclear Option: Google launched its technically superior Gemini 3 model, outshining rivals. This, coupled with a massive vote of confidence from Berkshire Hathaway, a new major investor, positioned Google as the true AI infrastructure winner. While NVIDIA got all the attention for its chips, Google got the gains for delivering a clear product pathway to the future.
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Up over 3.4% (hitting a $1 trillion market cap milestone)
The Pharma King: Lilly shrugged off market turbulence entirely, thanks to the continued, explosive optimism surrounding its dominant weight-loss and diabetes drugs (GLP-1s).
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Up over 4% (set a new all-time closing high)
Acquisition & Stability: The healthcare giant was propelled by the announcement of a $3.05 billion acquisition (strengthening its oncology pipeline) and the overall demand for stable, defensive stocks with dependable growth.
Walmart (WMT)
Up around 2.6% (soaring nearly 7% on Thursday)
The Inflation Hedge: Walmart delivered a stunning earnings beat, confirming it is gaining market share across all income levels. In a high-rate, high-cost environment, Walmart is the place where stressed consumers find value, making it an inflation-resistant powerhouse.
The Economic Indicators: A Confused Jigsaw Puzzle
The delayed economic data released this week added mixed clarity:
Nonfarm Payrolls
+119K Jobs (vs. +51K est.) but August revised from +22K to -4K.
Whiplash/Mixed: The huge headline beat initially suggested a strong economy (bad for rate cuts). But the sharp downward revision to August signaled underlying weakness, boosting rate-cut hopes and creating extreme intraday volatility.
Unemployment Rate
4.4% (Ticked up from 4.3% est.), U6 remained at 8%.
Dovish/Positive: The rise in the unemployment rate was a classic "good news is bad news" scenario. It gave the Fed more room to ease policy, as the labor market was clearly softening, leading to some Friday buying as rate cut hopes were briefly revived.
Factory Orders
+1.4% (vs. previous -1.3%)
Positive: This massive rebound suggested healthy demand for manufactured goods, providing a brief lift to industrial stocks.
Construction Spending
+0.2% (vs. 0.0% est.)
Neutral/Dollar Strength: The modest beat suggested pockets of strength, supporting the narrative that the economy wasn't collapsing, which reinforced the "higher-for-longer" rate fear.
Looking Ahead: The Turkey Short & The Data Feast
After a week that felt like running a financial marathon, the market gets a reprieve—sort of. Next week is a short trading week in the U.S. due to Thanksgiving, but don't expect the drama to disappear. We are still facing a gauntlet of critical economic reports that could either cement the Fed's cautious stance or swing the pendulum back toward rate cut hopes at the December FOMC meeting. Key reports include Industrial Production, the third and final estimate of Q3 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), and the first taste of holiday spending with Retail Sales data. If inflation is cooler than expected (PCE), expect a holiday rally; if economic growth (GDP/Industrial Production) remains too strong, the "higher-for-longer" anxiety will surely return to spoil the Thanksgiving leftovers.
Tariff Buster – Walmart
By Fiona Zhang
Walmart heads toward the end of the year with a sense of quiet confidence. Its latest quarter, Q3 FY26, offered a snapshot of a retailer still gaining ground. Revenue reached $179.5 billion, up 5.8% from a year earlier. E-commerce continued to be a powerful engine, rising 27% globally. In the U.S., comparable sales excluding fuel increased 4.5%, a pace strong enough for the company to raise its full-year outlook to roughly 5% growth in both net sales and operating income on a constant-currency basis.
In a landscape where many retailers are fighting for traffic and struggling to keep margins intact, Walmart’s results stand out as steady and disciplined rather than flashy. Its ability to post solid growth while raising guidance speaks to a resilience that peers have not always matched this year. With tariffs hovering in the background as a continuing complication for the entire retail sector, the quarter’s numbers suggest that Walmart is managing these pressures more effectively than most. The company has long leaned on its scale to negotiate pricing with suppliers, diversify sourcing, and avoid passing abrupt cost jumps onto consumers. The fact that both top-line growth and income guidance are moving higher suggests that Walmart has been able to absorb or offset cost pressures, even as import-heavy categories remain vulnerable.
Beyond the near-term noise, Walmart is quietly reshaping its view of the future of shopping. In October, it unveiled a new partnership with OpenAI that will allow customers to complete purchases directly inside ChatGPT through an Instant Checkout feature. The company describes this shift as a move toward what it calls AI-first or agentic commerce, where the shopping experience becomes conversational and predictive rather than search-based. Internally, Walmart says AI has already shortened fashion development cycles by as much as 18 weeks and cut customer-care resolution time by up to 40%.
That vision also shows up in the company’s recent dealmaking. Walmart completed its $2.3 billion purchase of Vizio in late 2024, giving its advertising and data capabilities a powerful new channel. More recently, the company has been in talks to acquire R&A Data, an AI-driven startup that helps marketplaces detect counterfeit or fraudulent listings. If completed, the deal would bolster Walmart’s fast-growing marketplace business and strengthen its ability to police product quality at scale.
All of this momentum leads into the holiday season, a stretch that will test execution more than vision. Walmart enters with the advantages it reliably delivers during peak shopping periods: strong value positioning, a broad assortment, and an omnichannel network that continues to improve. Yet risks still linger. A cautious consumer could lean harder into necessities at the expense of discretionary categories. Tariff-driven cost pressure could erode margin if the company is forced to absorb more than it can pass through. And the holiday rush always raises the stakes for inventory decisions, delivery speed, and fulfillment accuracy.
Even with these uncertainties, Walmart feels like a retailer that knows where it is heading. Its core business remains stable and growing, its digital operations are gaining traction, and its technology ambitions are no longer theoretical. What happens this holiday season will depend on demand and execution, but the longer arc suggests a company positioning itself not just for the next quarter, but for the next era of retail.
Advisory services offered through Sowell Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. The views expressed represent the opinion of Sowell Management. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Stated information is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Sowell Management believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Sowell Management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. While equities may offer the potential for greater long-term growth than most debt securities, they generally have higher volatility. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, or from economic or political instability in other nations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.